Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Posušje · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Posušje 3-1 Vitez
Original prediction
Posušje
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 11 October 2026 at 02:43 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.38 | 65.7% | 45.5% | -20.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.24 | 21.3% | 26.2% | 4.9 pts |
| Away | 6.97 | 13.0% | 28.2% | 15.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.38 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-20.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Posušje
Probability
45.5%
Model confidence
45.5%
Posušje has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PosušjeWWWWD
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
VitezWWLLW
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
PosušjeVitez
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.62xG1.38