Portuguesa FCvs
Estudiantes de Merida FC
COMPLETEDVenezuela · Primera División · 9/16/2026, 9:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Portuguesa FC · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Portuguesa FC 1-0 Estudiantes de Merida FC, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Portuguesa FC 2-1 Estudiantes de Merida FC
Original prediction
Portuguesa FC
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.31 | 39.3% | 47.4% | 8.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.07 | 29.5% | 28.0% | -1.6 pts |
| Away | 2.90 | 31.2% | 24.6% | -6.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.31 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.2 pts
Projected Score
Portuguesa FC 1–0 Estudiantes de Merida FC
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Portuguesa FC
Probability
47.4%
Model confidence
47.4%
Portuguesa FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80