Portugaletevs
Deportivo Alavés II
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · 10/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Deportivo Alavés II · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Portugalete 0-2 Deportivo Alavés II
Original prediction
Deportivo Alavés II
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.60 | 34.4% | 33.4% | -1.0 pts |
| Draw | 2.92 | 30.6% | 28.2% | -2.5 pts |
| Away | 2.56 | 34.9% | 38.4% | 3.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.56 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Deportivo Alavés II
Probability
38.4%
Model confidence
38.4%
Deportivo Alavés II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20