Portugal Wvs
Northern Ireland W
COMPLETEDWorld · World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe · 10/13/2026, 6:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Portugal W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-0 (10%), 3-1 (9%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Portugal W 3-1 Northern Ireland W
Original prediction
Portugal W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 16:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.07 | 85.1% | 61.3% | -23.8 pts |
| Draw | 8.36 | 10.8% | 20.8% | 10.0 pts |
| Away | 22.59 | 4.0% | 17.9% | 13.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.07 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-23.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–010%
- 2.3–19%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Portugal W
Probability
61.3%
Model confidence
61.3%
Portugal W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 15 · GA 4 · avg 3.00/0.80
GF 10 · GA 10 · avg 2.00/2.00