World Cup
Portugal
Home
Spain
AwayThe model sees this as an open match — all three outcomes are within a tight range.
Momentum trend
last 5 matchesPortugalSpainProbability breakdown
Spain leads with 38% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.
Match insights
Portugal head into this in World Cup fixture in decent form (LWDWD), while Spain arrive in outstanding form (WWWWW). Portugal have a 40% win rate across their last 5 matches, compared to 88% for Spain over 8 games.
Both sides are defensively strong — Portugal (79/100) and Spain (89/100) are both rated highly at the back. The model expects a tight, low-scoring affair with defences on top.
Portugal have won 2 of their last 4 home fixtures, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game at home. Spain have been excellent on the road, winning all 2 of their recent away fixtures and averaging 1.5 goals scored and 0.0 conceded per away game.
Portugal have generated 1.25 xG per game recently while conceding 0.88 xG per match, overperforming their xG in 67% of recent matches. Spain have generated 2.42 xG per game recently while conceding 0.43 xG per match.
Spain have dominated recent head-to-head meetings, winning 1 of the last 1 encounters, averaging 1.0 goals per game.
The GoalVio engine projects Spain to win with 38% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 0-1. Win probabilities: Portugal 3777%, Draw 2395%, Spain 3828%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.
Head to head
Recent form
Portugal
Spain
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Portugal vs Spain?
GoalVio's model predicts Spain to win with 38% confidence.
What is the predicted score for Portugal vs Spain?
The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 0-1.
Will both teams score in Portugal vs Spain?
GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Portugal vs Spain?
GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.