Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Portugal · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Portugal 2-1 Norway
Original prediction
Portugal
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 18:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.68 | 56.7% | 53.7% | -3.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.35 | 21.9% | 23.7% | 1.9 pts |
| Away | 4.42 | 21.5% | 22.6% | 1.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.68 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Portugal
Probability
53.7%
Model confidence
53.7%
Portugal has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PortugalWWWWW
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
NorwayLLWDW
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
PortugalNorway
77.8Attack55.6
66.7Defence33.3
100.0Form33.3
85.2Power43.7
2.08xG1.00