World Cup
Portugal
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Portugal leads with 63% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.
Match insights
Portugal head into this in World Cup fixture at BMO Field in decent form (LWDWD), while Croatia arrive in mixed form (LWWL). Portugal have a 40% win rate across their last 5 matches, compared to 50% for Croatia over 4 games.
Tactically, this looks like a one-sided contest. Portugal's decent attack (58/100) faces a leaky Croatia defence (36/100), while Croatia's attack is up against a watertight Portugal backline. The model sees a clear mismatch in Portugal's favour.
Portugal have won 2 of their last 4 home fixtures, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game at home. Croatia have won 1 of their last 3 away fixtures, averaging 1.3 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per away game.
Portugal have generated 1.25 xG per game recently while conceding 0.88 xG per match, overperforming their xG in 67% of recent matches. Croatia have generated 0.35 xG per game recently while conceding 1.20 xG per match, overperforming their xG in 100% of recent matches.
Portugal have the upper hand in recent meetings, winning 1 of the last 1 encounters, averaging 3.0 goals per game, both teams scored in 1 of those fixtures.
The GoalVio engine projects Portugal to win with 63% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 2-1. Win probabilities: Portugal 6290%, Draw 2072%, Croatia 1637%. BTTS: Yes, Over 2.5: Yes.
Head to head
Recent form
Portugal
Croatia
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Portugal vs Croatia?
GoalVio's model predicts Portugal to win with 63% confidence.
What is the predicted score for Portugal vs Croatia?
The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-1.
Will both teams score in Portugal vs Croatia?
GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Portugal vs Croatia?
GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.