Portugal U19vs
Netherlands U19
COMPLETEDWorld · Friendlies · 9/30/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Portugal U19 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Portugal U19 6-1 Netherlands U19
Original prediction
Portugal U19
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.08 | 42.9% | 42.3% | -0.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.71 | 24.1% | 25.5% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 2.71 | 33.0% | 32.2% | -0.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.08 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Portugal U19
Probability
42.3%
Model confidence
42.3%
Portugal U19 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00