GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 10/10/2023, 6:45:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Portsmouth · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1

Highconfidence

Portsmouth are 5W-0D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWW), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Gillingham are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLDLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Portsmouth hold a 24.4-point power-rating edge (57.5 v 33.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 58.8% in the EFL Trophy, while Portsmouth holds the strongest overall chance at 59% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 76% BTTS chance and 81% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Portsmouth

Probability

58.8%

Model confidence

58.8%

Portsmouth has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

PortsmouthWWWWW

GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00

BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
GillinghamWLDLW

GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40

BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
PortsmouthGillingham
100.0Attack33.3
16.7Defence22.2
58.3Form33.3
57.5Power33.1
2.86xG1.61
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