Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
PSV U19 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 1-3 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Porto U19 3-1 PSV U19
Original prediction
PSV U19
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:32 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.57 | 57.3% | 35.0% | -22.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.53 | 19.9% | 23.1% | 3.2 pts |
| Away | 3.94 | 22.8% | 41.9% | 19.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
19.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–29%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.1–37%
Predicted outcome
PSV U19
Probability
41.9%
Model confidence
41.9%
PSV U19 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Porto U19WLWDW
GF 13 · GA 7 · avg 2.60/1.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 4/5
PSV U19WWDWL
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Porto U19PSV U19
50.0Attack100.0
0.0Defence83.3
50.0Form100.0
35.5Power91.8
1.48xG2.40