Portland Timbersvs
St. Louis City
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 9/10/2026, 2:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Portland Timbers · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Portland Timbers 2-2 St. Louis City
Original prediction
Portland Timbers
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.40 | 39.1% | 36.7% | -2.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.77 | 24.8% | 27.3% | 2.4 pts |
| Away | 2.60 | 36.1% | 36.0% | -0.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.77 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Portland Timbers
Probability
36.7%
Model confidence
36.7%
Portland Timbers has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 10 · avg 2.20/2.00
GF 12 · GA 7 · avg 2.40/1.40