Portland Timbersvs
Minnesota United FC
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 9/6/2026, 2:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Portland Timbers · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Portland Timbers 5-4 Minnesota United FC
Original prediction
Portland Timbers
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.21 | 42.6% | 46.0% | 3.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.72 | 25.3% | 22.3% | -3.1 pts |
| Away | 2.94 | 32.1% | 31.7% | -0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.21 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Portland Timbers
Probability
46.0%
Model confidence
46.0%
Portland Timbers has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
GF 13 · GA 8 · avg 2.60/1.60