Portland Timbersvs
Atlanta United FC
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 9/20/2026, 2:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Portland Timbers · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Portland Timbers 0-1 Atlanta United FC
Original prediction
Portland Timbers
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.95 | 48.1% | 58.4% | 10.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.92 | 23.9% | 19.4% | -4.5 pts |
| Away | 3.35 | 28.0% | 22.2% | -5.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.3–18%
Predicted outcome
Portland Timbers
Probability
58.4%
Model confidence
58.4%
Portland Timbers has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 11 · avg 2.00/2.20
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60