GGOALVIO

USA · NWSL Women · 7/5/2026, 11:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Portland Thorns W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1

Lowconfidence

Portland Thorns W are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DLWDL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Racing Louisville W are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLLWL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Portland Thorns W hold a 15.4-point power-rating edge (54.6 v 39.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 9.8% in the NWSL Women, while Portland Thorns W holds the strongest overall chance at 64% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 63% BTTS chance and 68% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Portland Thorns W

Probability

64.1%

Model confidence

9.8%

Portland Thorns W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Portland Thorns WDLWDL

GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Racing Louisville WLLLWL

GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Portland Thorns WRacing Louisville W
56.1Attack44.4
50.9Defence35.2
54.4Form31.5
54.6Power39.2
2.45xG1.14
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