Portland Thorns Wvs
North Carolina Courage W
COMPLETEDUSA · NWSL Women · 10/24/2026, 2:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Portland Thorns W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Portland Thorns W 1-0 North Carolina Courage W
Original prediction
Portland Thorns W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 17:16 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.35 | 38.1% | 41.4% | 3.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.72 | 24.0% | 21.8% | -2.2 pts |
| Away | 2.36 | 37.9% | 36.8% | -1.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.35 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Portland Thorns W
Probability
41.4%
Model confidence
41.4%
Portland Thorns W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60