Portland Thorns Wvs
Chicago Red Stars W
COMPLETEDUSA · NWSL Women · 9/13/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Portland Thorns W · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (14%), 3-0 (13%), 4-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Portland Thorns W 1-1 Chicago Red Stars W
Original prediction
Portland Thorns W
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.22 | 73.0% | 58.4% | -14.7 pts |
| Draw | 5.48 | 16.3% | 22.4% | 6.1 pts |
| Away | 8.41 | 10.6% | 19.2% | 8.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 4.48 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–014%
- 2.3–013%
- 3.4–09%
Predicted outcome
Portland Thorns W
Probability
58.4%
Model confidence
58.4%
Portland Thorns W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
GF 4 · GA 20 · avg 0.80/4.00