Portland Hearts of Pinevs
Sarasota Paradise
COMPLETEDUSA · USL League One · 9/26/2026, 9:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Portland Hearts of Pine · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Portland Hearts of Pine 1-4 Sarasota Paradise
Original prediction
Portland Hearts of Pine
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 05:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.32 | 38.4% | 37.7% | -0.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.42 | 26.1% | 28.5% | 2.4 pts |
| Away | 2.52 | 35.5% | 33.8% | -1.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Portland Hearts of Pine
Probability
37.7%
Model confidence
37.7%
Portland Hearts of Pine has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80