GGOALVIO

USA · USL League One Cup · 5/16/2026, 8:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Rhode Island · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Mediumconfidence

Portland Hearts of Pine are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DLWDD), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Rhode Island are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DLDWW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Rhode Island hold an 11.3-point power-rating edge (41.6 v 52.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.2% in the USL League One Cup, while Rhode Island holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 57% BTTS chance and 52% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Rhode Island

Probability

42.6%

Model confidence

13.2%

Rhode Island has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Portland Hearts of PineDLWDD

GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80

BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Rhode IslandDLDWW

GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Portland Hearts of PineRhode Island
50.0Attack41.7
25.0Defence75.0
41.7Form41.7
41.6Power52.8
1.24xG1.52
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