Porthmadogvs
Caersws
COMPLETEDWales · FAW Championship · 8/28/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Porthmadog · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Porthmadog 1-3 Caersws
Original prediction
Porthmadog
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.10 | 43.0% | 50.3% | 7.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.71 | 24.4% | 23.4% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.77 | 32.6% | 26.2% | -6.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.3–18%
Predicted outcome
Porthmadog
Probability
50.3%
Model confidence
50.3%
Porthmadog has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
GF 14 · GA 8 · avg 2.80/1.60