Porthmadogvs
Bangor City 1876 FC
COMPLETEDWales · FAW Championship · 10/3/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Porthmadog · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%), 1-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Porthmadog 1-0 Bangor City 1876 FC
Original prediction
Porthmadog
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 03:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.14 | 42.3% | 45.3% | 3.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.86 | 23.4% | 21.9% | -1.5 pts |
| Away | 2.64 | 34.3% | 32.7% | -1.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.14 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–18%
- 2.2–27%
- 3.1–17%
Predicted outcome
Porthmadog
Probability
45.3%
Model confidence
45.3%
Porthmadog has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
GF 12 · GA 12 · avg 2.40/2.40