Porthmadogvs
Bala Town
COMPLETEDWales · FAW Championship · 9/5/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bala Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Porthmadog 1-2 Bala Town
Original prediction
Bala Town
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:16 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.99 | 30.8% | 32.5% | 1.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.76 | 24.5% | 24.4% | -0.0 pts |
| Away | 2.06 | 44.7% | 43.1% | -1.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.06 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Bala Town
Probability
43.1%
Model confidence
43.1%
Bala Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80