Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Linfield · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (14%), 0-2 (13%), 1-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Portadown 1-1 Linfield
Original prediction
Linfield
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 7.13 | 12.6% | 17.2% | 4.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.46 | 20.2% | 23.2% | 3.0 pts |
| Away | 1.34 | 67.2% | 59.6% | -7.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.46 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–114%
- 2.0–213%
- 3.1–112%
Predicted outcome
Linfield
Probability
59.6%
Model confidence
59.6%
Linfield has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PortadownLLLLL
GF 3 · GA 12 · avg 0.60/2.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
LinfieldWWWWW
GF 7 · GA 1 · avg 1.40/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
PortadownLinfield
16.7Attack38.9
27.8Defence77.8
0.0Form83.3
19.6Power69.3
0.71xG1.70