Portadownvs
Limavady United
COMPLETEDNorthern-Ireland · Premiership · 10/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Limavady United · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (14%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Portadown 3-1 Limavady United
Original prediction
Limavady United
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 04:50 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.65 | 34.4% | 29.0% | -5.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.54 | 25.7% | 28.3% | 2.6 pts |
| Away | 2.28 | 39.9% | 42.7% | 2.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–114%
- 2.1–114%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Limavady United
Probability
42.7%
Model confidence
42.7%
Limavady United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 11 · avg 0.60/2.20
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00