Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Larne · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (12%), 0-2 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Portadown 0-2 Larne
Original prediction
Larne
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 8.29 | 10.9% | 21.0% | 10.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.37 | 20.8% | 24.8% | 4.0 pts |
| Away | 1.33 | 68.3% | 54.2% | -14.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.33 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–211%
Predicted outcome
Larne
Probability
54.2%
Model confidence
54.2%
Larne has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PortadownLLLLL
GF 3 · GA 11 · avg 0.60/2.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
LarneWWLWD
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
PortadownLarne
20.0Attack33.3
26.7Defence88.9
0.0Form77.8
20.1Power70.7
0.89xG1.70