Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Wrexham · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Port Vale are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (LWWWW), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Wrexham are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WDDWW), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Wrexham hold a 28.6-point power-rating edge (41.9 v 70.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 46.9% in the EFL Trophy, while Wrexham holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 58% BTTS chance and 56% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Wrexham
Probability
46.9%
Model confidence
46.9%
Wrexham has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
GF 7 · GA 2 · avg 1.40/0.40