GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 9/3/2024, 6:45:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Port Vale · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Port Vale are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLWDL), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Wolves U21 are 1W-0D-2L in their last 3 (LLW), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.33 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 8 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Port Vale hold an 8.1-point power-rating edge (41.9 v 33.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 45.7% in the EFL Trophy, while Port Vale holds the strongest overall chance at 46% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 60% BTTS chance and 58% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Port Vale

Probability

45.7%

Model confidence

45.7%

Port Vale has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Port ValeLLWDL

GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00

BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Wolves U21LLW

GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/2.33

BTTS 2/3O2.5 2/3
Port ValeWolves U21
25.0Attack33.3
58.3Defence22.2
33.3Form33.3
41.9Power33.8
1.77xG1.26
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