GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 10/10/2023, 6:45:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Port Vale · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Port Vale are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLLWD), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Newcastle United U21 are 0W-0D-2L in their last 2 (LL), averaging 0.00 scored and 1.50 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 7 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Port Vale hold a 9.0-point power-rating edge (41.9 v 32.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 40.6% in the EFL Trophy, while Port Vale holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 56% BTTS chance and 51% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Port Vale

Probability

40.6%

Model confidence

40.6%

Port Vale has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Port ValeLLLWD

GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60

BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Newcastle United U21LL

GF 0 · GA 3 · avg 0.00/1.50

BTTS 0/2O2.5 0/2
Port ValeNewcastle United U21
25.0Attack22.2
58.3Defence55.6
33.3Form11.1
41.9Power32.9
1.50xG1.21
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