GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 9/2/2025, 6:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Port Vale · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Port Vale are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LWLLD), averaging 0.40 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Leeds United U21 are 0W-1D-1L in their last 2 (LD), averaging 0.50 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 7 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Port Vale hold a 26.1-point power-rating edge (41.9 v 15.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 51.8% in the EFL Trophy, while Port Vale holds the strongest overall chance at 52% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 61% BTTS chance and 60% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Port Vale

Probability

51.8%

Model confidence

51.8%

Port Vale has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Port ValeLWLLD

GF 2 · GA 4 · avg 0.40/0.80

BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
Leeds United U21LD

GF 1 · GA 4 · avg 0.50/2.00

BTTS 1/2O2.5 1/2
Port ValeLeeds United U21
25.0Attack33.3
58.3Defence0.0
33.3Form0.0
41.9Power15.8
1.97xG1.19
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