Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Port Vale · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Port Vale are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WDWWD), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Crewe are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WDLDW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Port Vale hold a 5.2-point power-rating edge (41.9 v 36.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 41.5% in the EFL Trophy, while Port Vale holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 57% BTTS chance and 53% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Port Vale
Probability
41.5%
Model confidence
41.5%
Port Vale has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20