Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Port Vale · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Port Vale are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LLDDL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Barnsley are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DWLWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Barnsley hold a 6.0-point power-rating edge (41.9 v 47.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 37.5% in the EFL Trophy, while Port Vale holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 64% BTTS chance and 61% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Port Vale
Probability
37.5%
Model confidence
37.5%
Port Vale has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00