Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Port FC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Port FC 4-1 Rayong FC
Original prediction
Port FC
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:30 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.31 | 68.3% | 54.1% | -14.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.81 | 18.6% | 22.7% | 4.1 pts |
| Away | 6.90 | 13.0% | 23.2% | 10.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.31 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Port FC
Probability
54.1%
Model confidence
54.1%
Port FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Port FCWWLWL
GF 10 · GA 11 · avg 2.00/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Rayong FCWDLDW
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
BTTS 5/5O2.5 3/5
Port FCRayong FC
66.7Attack53.3
60.0Defence53.3
80.0Form53.3
71.7Power56.5
1.89xG1.20