Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Popayan 0-0 Patriotas, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Popayan 4-1 Patriotas
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:18 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.48 | 36.4% | 34.2% | -2.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.01 | 30.0% | 31.3% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 2.68 | 33.6% | 34.5% | 0.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.4 pts
Projected Score
Popayan 0–0 Patriotas
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
31.3%
Model confidence
34.5%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PopayanWWDLL
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
PatriotasLWWWL
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
PopayanPatriotas
36.2Attack40.3
56.5Defence59.7
34.8Form47.2
44.9Power51.1
0.92xG0.98