Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Envigado · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Popayan 0-1 Envigado, with an exact score probability of 19%.
Prediction record
Final result
Popayan 2-2 Envigado
Original prediction
Envigado
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.24 | 28.2% | 20.9% | -7.3 pts |
| Draw | 2.98 | 30.7% | 29.6% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.23 | 41.1% | 49.5% | 8.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 1.98 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.4 pts
Projected Score
Popayan 0–1 Envigado
Exact score probability: 19%
Predicted outcome
Envigado
Probability
49.5%
Model confidence
49.5%
Envigado has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PopayanLLLDW
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
EnvigadoLLLDL
GF 2 · GA 8 · avg 0.40/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
PopayanEnvigado
31.7Attack44.0
55.0Defence70.2
28.3Form57.1
41.0Power59.0
0.57xG1.15