Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Popayan · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Popayan 1-0 Depor FC, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Popayan 0-1 Depor FC
Original prediction
Popayan
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:40 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.10 | 43.6% | 52.1% | 8.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.21 | 28.5% | 26.2% | -2.3 pts |
| Away | 3.27 | 28.0% | 21.7% | -6.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.5 pts
Projected Score
Popayan 1–0 Depor FC
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Popayan
Probability
52.1%
Model confidence
52.1%
Popayan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PopayanLDWWW
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
Depor FCDLLLW
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
PopayanDepor FC
40.7Attack33.3
59.3Defence48.1
38.3Form29.6
47.6Power39.3
1.39xG0.73