Poole Townvs
Evesham United
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Southern South · 10/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Poole Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Poole Town 3-1 Evesham United
Original prediction
Poole Town
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 19 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.61 | 56.6% | 49.3% | -7.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.87 | 23.5% | 24.1% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 4.56 | 19.9% | 26.6% | 6.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.61 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Poole Town
Probability
49.3%
Model confidence
49.3%
Poole Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80