Pontypridd Townvs
Llantwit Major
COMPLETEDWales · FAW Championship · 10/6/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pontypridd Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (9%), 4-1 (8%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Pontypridd Town 4-1 Llantwit Major
Original prediction
Pontypridd Town
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.23 | 73.3% | 67.0% | -6.2 pts |
| Draw | 5.63 | 16.0% | 17.5% | 1.5 pts |
| Away | 8.43 | 10.7% | 15.4% | 4.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.23 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–19%
- 2.4–18%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Pontypridd Town
Probability
67.0%
Model confidence
67.0%
Pontypridd Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 16 · GA 10 · avg 3.20/2.00
GF 2 · GA 17 · avg 0.40/3.40