Pontypridd Townvs
Afan Lido
COMPLETEDWales · FAW Championship · 9/11/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pontypridd Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (8%), 2-1 (7%), 4-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Pontypridd Town 0-1 Afan Lido
Original prediction
Pontypridd Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.61 | 56.2% | 58.9% | 2.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.06 | 22.3% | 19.8% | -2.6 pts |
| Away | 4.23 | 21.4% | 21.3% | -0.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–18%
- 2.2–17%
- 3.4–17%
Predicted outcome
Pontypridd Town
Probability
58.9%
Model confidence
58.9%
Pontypridd Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 16 · GA 10 · avg 3.20/2.00
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00