Pontypridd Townvs
Aberystwyth Town
COMPLETEDWales · FAW Championship · 10/3/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aberystwyth Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (8%), 2-2 (7%), 1-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Pontypridd Town 1-3 Aberystwyth Town
Original prediction
Aberystwyth Town
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 03:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.80 | 32.3% | 32.2% | -0.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.60 | 25.1% | 22.3% | -2.9 pts |
| Away | 2.13 | 42.5% | 45.6% | 3.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.13 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–28%
- 2.2–27%
- 3.1–17%
Predicted outcome
Aberystwyth Town
Probability
45.6%
Model confidence
45.6%
Aberystwyth Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 8 · avg 2.40/1.60
GF 13 · GA 3 · avg 2.60/0.60