Pontevedravs
Ponferradina
COMPLETEDSpain · Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · 9/27/2026, 4:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Pontevedra 0-0 Ponferradina, with an exact score probability of 32%.
Prediction record
Final result
Pontevedra 1-1 Ponferradina
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 04:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.04 | 44.4% | 38.6% | -5.8 pts |
| Draw | 2.98 | 30.4% | 36.1% | 5.8 pts |
| Away | 3.58 | 25.3% | 25.3% | 0.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.98 · Draw 1.98 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.8 pts
Projected Score
Pontevedra 0–0 Ponferradina
Exact score probability: 32%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
36.1%
Model confidence
38.6%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PontevedraDLWWL
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
PonferradinaWLDWD
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
PontevedraPonferradina
43.0Attack33.3
72.8Defence77.2
50.9Form56.1
56.3Power57.7
0.66xG0.50