Pontevedravs
Mérida AD
COMPLETEDSpain · Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · 10/11/2026, 2:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pontevedra · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Pontevedra 1-2 Mérida AD
Original prediction
Pontevedra
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 06:22 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.16 | 42.0% | 44.9% | 2.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.07 | 29.5% | 26.0% | -3.6 pts |
| Away | 3.19 | 28.5% | 29.1% | 0.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–07%
Predicted outcome
Pontevedra
Probability
44.9%
Model confidence
44.9%
Pontevedra has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20