Pontevedravs
Cacereño
COMPLETEDSpain · Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · 10/18/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cacereño · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (15%), 0-1 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Pontevedra 1-0 Cacereño
Original prediction
Cacereño
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 08:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.23 | 40.9% | 33.2% | -7.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.05 | 29.9% | 29.2% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 3.12 | 29.2% | 37.5% | 8.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–015%
- 3.0–113%
Predicted outcome
Cacereño
Probability
37.5%
Model confidence
37.5%
Cacereño has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00