Pontevedravs
Athletic Club II
COMPLETEDSpain · Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · 9/12/2026, 2:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pontevedra · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Pontevedra 0-0 Athletic Club II, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
Pontevedra 1-3 Athletic Club II
Original prediction
Pontevedra
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.01 | 44.9% | 41.1% | -3.8 pts |
| Draw | 2.88 | 31.2% | 31.1% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 3.77 | 23.9% | 27.8% | 3.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.8 pts
Projected Score
Pontevedra 0–0 Athletic Club II
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
Pontevedra
Probability
41.1%
Model confidence
41.1%
Pontevedra has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 5 · avg 2.60/1.00
GF 9 · GA 2 · avg 1.80/0.40