Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pontedera · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Pontedera 1-1 Oltrepò
Original prediction
Pontedera
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.85 | 48.1% | 40.8% | -7.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.35 | 26.5% | 28.1% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 3.49 | 25.4% | 31.2% | 5.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.35 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Pontedera
Probability
40.8%
Model confidence
40.8%
Pontedera has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PontederaLWLLL
GF 3 · GA 13 · avg 0.60/2.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
OltrepòDLLLL
GF 2 · GA 11 · avg 0.40/2.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
PontederaOltrepò
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.46xG1.24