Serie BSerie B
Monday, 22 June 2026Last updated 10:06
Ponte Preta

Ponte Preta

Home
LL
02
Full time
Novorizontino

Novorizontino

Away
LW
GoalVio prediction
48% confidence
Novorizontino(48%)
Most likely exact score0-1
Prediction correct— Result: Novorizontino
Win probability
Ponte Preta
23%
Draw
29%
Novorizontino
48%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Ponte Preta
18
Novorizontino
73
Defence
Ponte Preta
27
Novorizontino
66
Momentum
Ponte Preta
0
Novorizontino
50
Danger (xG)
Ponte Preta
0.45
Novorizontino
2.46
Both teams to score
No
Over 2.5 goals
No
xG for (Ponte Preta)
0.45
avg per match
xG for (Novorizontino)
2.46
avg per match
xG against (Ponte Preta)
1.80
avg per match
xG against (Novorizontino)
0.26
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Ponte PretaPonte Preta
LLLL
NovorizontinoNovorizontino
LWWW

Probability breakdown

48% confidence
Ponte Preta23%
Draw29%
Novorizontino48%

Novorizontino leads with 48% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Ponte Preta head into this in Serie B fixture in mixed form (LL), while Novorizontino arrive in mixed form (LW). Ponte Preta have a 0% win rate across their last 2 matches, compared to 50% for Novorizontino over 2 games.

Tactically, Novorizontino hold the edge. Their strong attack (73/100) is pitted against a vulnerable Ponte Preta defence (27/100), while Ponte Preta's attack faces a solid Novorizontino backline. The model flags this as a potential away-team performance.

Ponte Preta have struggled at home recently, failing to win any of their last 2 home games. They average 0.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per home match. Novorizontino have won 1 of their last 2 away fixtures, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per away game.

Novorizontino have generated 2.22 xG per game recently while conceding 0.52 xG per match, underperforming their xG in 100% of recent matches.

Novorizontino have dominated recent head-to-head meetings, winning 1 of the last 1 encounters, averaging 2.0 goals per game.

The GoalVio engine projects Novorizontino to win with 48% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 0-1. Win probabilities: Ponte Preta 2257%, Draw 2936%, Novorizontino 4808%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Head to head

Ponte Preta 0Draws 01 Novorizontino
Avg goals: 2.0
23 Jun 2026
Ponte Preta
L02
Novorizontino

Recent form

Ponte Preta

Ponte Preta

L
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9 Jul 2026
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3 Jul 2026
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@ Atletico Goianiense
28 Jun 2026
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vs Novorizontino
23 Jun 2026
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Novorizontino

Novorizontino

L
@ Operario-PR
12 Jul 2026
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xG 2.2
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vs Atletico Goianiense
4 Jul 2026
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vs Vila Nova
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@ Ponte Preta
23 Jun 2026
20

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Ponte Preta vs Novorizontino?

GoalVio's model predicts Novorizontino to win with 48% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Ponte Preta vs Novorizontino?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 0-1.

Will both teams score in Ponte Preta vs Novorizontino?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Ponte Preta vs Novorizontino?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more