Serie BSerie B
Saturday, 18 July 2026Last updated 10:06
Ponte Preta

Ponte Preta

Home
LL
12
Full time
Goias

Goias

Away
DW
Moisés Lucarelli
GoalVio prediction
39% confidence
Goias(39%)
Most likely exact score0-1
Win probability
Ponte Preta
32%
Draw
29%
Goias
39%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Ponte Preta
18
Goias
73
Defence
Ponte Preta
27
Goias
66
Momentum
Ponte Preta
0
Goias
67
Danger (xG)
Ponte Preta
0.45
Goias
1.34
Both teams to score
No
Over 2.5 goals
No
xG for (Ponte Preta)
0.45
avg per match
xG for (Goias)
1.34
avg per match
xG against (Ponte Preta)
1.80
avg per match
xG against (Goias)
0.88
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Ponte PretaPonte Preta
LLLL
GoiasGoias
DWWLL

Probability breakdown

39% confidence
Ponte Preta32%
Draw29%
Goias39%

Goias leads with 39% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Ponte Preta head into this in Serie B fixture at Moisés Lucarelli in mixed form (LL), while Goias arrive in mixed form (DW). Ponte Preta have a 0% win rate across their last 2 matches, compared to 50% for Goias over 2 games.

Tactically, Goias hold the edge. Their strong attack (73/100) is pitted against a vulnerable Ponte Preta defence (27/100), while Ponte Preta's attack faces a solid Goias backline. The model flags this as a potential away-team performance.

Ponte Preta have struggled at home recently, failing to win any of their last 2 home games. They average 0.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per home match. Goias have won 1 of their last 3 away fixtures, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per away game.

Goias have generated 0.89 xG per game recently while conceding 1.75 xG per match, overperforming their xG in 100% of recent matches.

There is no head-to-head data between Ponte Preta and Goias in the engine.

The GoalVio engine projects Goias to win with 39% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 0-1. Win probabilities: Ponte Preta 3178%, Draw 2903%, Goias 3919%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Recent form

Ponte Preta

Ponte Preta

L
vs Criciuma
9 Jul 2026
12
L
@ Fortaleza EC
3 Jul 2026
02
L
@ Atletico Goianiense
28 Jun 2026
02
L
vs Novorizontino
23 Jun 2026
02
Goias

Goias

D
@ CRB
12 Jul 2026
22
xG 0.9
W
vs Ceara
5 Jul 2026
20
W
@ Nautico Recife
28 Jun 2026
10
L
vs Operario-PR
21 Jun 2026
03
L
@ Cruzeiro
13 May 2026
01

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Ponte Preta vs Goias?

GoalVio's model predicts Goias to win with 39% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Ponte Preta vs Goias?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 0-1.

Will both teams score in Ponte Preta vs Goias?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Ponte Preta vs Goias?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more