Ponte Pretavs
Fortaleza EC
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie B · 10/24/2026, 9:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fortaleza EC · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Ponte Preta 0-1 Fortaleza EC, with an exact score probability of 20%.
Prediction record
Final result
Ponte Preta 2-2 Fortaleza EC
Original prediction
Fortaleza EC
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:33 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 11.62 | 8.0% | 7.4% | -0.5 pts |
| Draw | 5.55 | 16.6% | 18.9% | 2.3 pts |
| Away | 1.23 | 75.4% | 73.7% | -1.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 4.55 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.7 pts
Projected Score
Ponte Preta 0–1 Fortaleza EC
Exact score probability: 20%
Predicted outcome
Fortaleza EC
Probability
73.7%
Model confidence
73.7%
Fortaleza EC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Ponte PretaDLLLL
GF 2 · GA 12 · avg 0.40/2.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
Fortaleza ECWDWDD
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Ponte PretaFortaleza EC
18.6Attack40.2
27.5Defence71.6
13.7Form58.8
23.8Power58.7
0.39xG1.74