Ponte da Barcavs
Amarante
COMPLETEDPortugal · Taça de Portugal · 9/20/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Amarante · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ponte da Barca 0-2 Amarante
Original prediction
Amarante
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 12.78 | 7.0% | 26.4% | 19.4 pts |
| Draw | 5.58 | 16.1% | 24.9% | 8.8 pts |
| Away | 1.17 | 76.8% | 48.7% | -28.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.17 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-28.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Amarante
Probability
48.7%
Model confidence
48.7%
Amarante has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20