Ponferradinavs
Real Avilés
COMPLETEDSpain · Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · 10/11/2026, 2:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ponferradina · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ponferradina 0-2 Real Avilés
Original prediction
Ponferradina
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 06:22 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.76 | 51.4% | 43.9% | -7.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.34 | 27.1% | 28.1% | 1.0 pts |
| Away | 4.22 | 21.5% | 28.0% | 6.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Ponferradina
Probability
43.9%
Model confidence
43.9%
Ponferradina has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80