Ponferradinavs
Mérida AD
COMPLETEDSpain · Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · 9/19/2026, 4:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ponferradina · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Ponferradina 0-0 Mérida AD, with an exact score probability of 23%.
Prediction record
Final result
Ponferradina 1-0 Mérida AD
Original prediction
Ponferradina
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.77 | 51.5% | 45.1% | -6.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.34 | 27.3% | 30.9% | 3.7 pts |
| Away | 4.30 | 21.2% | 23.9% | 2.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.77 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.4 pts
Projected Score
Ponferradina 0–0 Mérida AD
Exact score probability: 23%
Predicted outcome
Ponferradina
Probability
45.1%
Model confidence
45.1%
Ponferradina has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80