Ponferradinavs
Mirandes
COMPLETEDSpain · Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · 10/4/2026, 2:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ponferradina · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Ponferradina 0-0 Mirandes, with an exact score probability of 23%.
Prediction record
Final result
Ponferradina 1-0 Mirandes
Original prediction
Ponferradina
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 04:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.58 | 35.3% | 38.6% | 3.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.11 | 29.3% | 31.9% | 2.6 pts |
| Away | 2.56 | 35.5% | 29.5% | -6.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.58 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.4 pts
Projected Score
Ponferradina 0–0 Mirandes
Exact score probability: 23%
Predicted outcome
Ponferradina
Probability
38.6%
Model confidence
38.6%
Ponferradina has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20